McCarthy lost his sixth consecutive vote on Wednesday before the House adjourned for an evening recess. The California Republican lost on two additional ballots earlier in the day, which followed three previous failures on Tuesday. He was at least 15 votes shy of the required majority on each occasion, while having lost support since the first vote.
A small GOP faction, led by members of the House Freedom Caucus, is continuing to oppose McCarthy’s election to the top position, instead nominating alternatives including Republican Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona, Steve Scalise of Louisiana, Jim Jordan of Ohio, and Byron Donalds of Florida.
If McCarthy doesn’t find support or meet the demands of rebel representatives blocking his progress, eyes are turning to other candidates both within the GOP and across the aisle.
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has secured all votes from House Democrats, leading to claims that with just six votes from Republicans he could in theory become Speaker of the House, even with a GOP majority.
Indeed, the slim prospect has fueled speculation on social media as the deadlock continued into the third day of voting.
While Jeffries does not appear to have addressed such a prospect directly, when asked if Democrats could rally around a consensus candidate, he instead took the opportunity to criticize opposition members.
“We are looking for a willing partner to solve problems for the American people, not save the Republicans from their dysfunction,” Jeffries told NBC News.
“We need a partner in governance to build upon the incredible progress that we made for the American people over the last few years—by the way, with a similar majority.”
With the House to return at 12 noon EST Thursday for what is likely to become another wrangling session, how realistic is it that Jeffries could become the curveball in the GOP’s sights, and how long would any such appointment last?
To find out more, Newsweek spoke to a group of experts in American and congressional politics to weigh up the likelihood—and potential repercussions—of such a move.
What would happen if Jeffries got in?
As it stands, Jeffries remains an outside bet, even with the full support of Democrats. Any such move would be the first time in post-civil war U.S. history that a Speaker from the party opposite the House majority was seated.
Even if he did win, there’s a strong possibility he would be quickly removed. Traditionally, it would take a majority vote to vacate the position and lead to another vote for the Speaker.
However, one of the sticking points for McCarthy has been a desire among members of the Freedom Caucus to reduce this to a request from just one member. McCarthy has previously offered five, though recent reporting suggests that he is open to making a concession on this issue.
Professor Julie Norman, co-director of the University College London Centre on US politics, told Newsweek that changes to these rules would leave both Jeffries and Republican candidates exposed.
“The current House rules established by Pelosi require either a party leader or a majority vote by one party to force a vote on ousting the Speaker, so Jeffries would likely be very vulnerable,” Norman said.
“But anyone from the GOP will likely be vulnerable too, perhaps more so if the Freedom Caucus gets their way.
“Indeed, one of the demands of the current oppositionists was to change that rule to make it easier to call such a vote by a motion by just one member. McCarthy negotiated that to five members, but whoever takes the role will likely have to weaken that rule, putting themselves in a much more precarious position.”
However, Norman added that if a group of moderate Republicans did vote for Jeffries, they too would be left in an invidious position: “It would be very difficult for even the most moderate Republicans to recover politically if they voted for a Democrat in this situation or even if they abstained, if it led to the same effect.”
Additionally, if the motion to vacate were reduced to five votes or even just one, there are no protocols to ensure that a Speaker could serve a minimum term, which might give Jeffries the opportunity to bring the House together.
Dr. David Andersen, an associate professor in U.S. Politics at Durham University, told Newsweek that should Jeffries be voted in, the GOP would “immediately move to vacate the chair,” with Jeffries having “no protection against this.”
“What he would do in the office is the bigger question,” Andersen said. “Without majority support, he wouldn’t be able to pass any Democratic-authored legislation. As a Democrat, it is hard to see why he would seek to pass any Republican-authored legislation.”
Theoretically, as Stanford University’s William Bennett Munro Professor of Political Science Dr. Gary Cox told Newsweek, while the House could protect him from being vacated immediately, the likelihood of that is slim.
“The Constitution (Section 5, Clause 2) states that ‘Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings.’ In the House, after a Speaker is elected, the Speaker-elect typically proposes the rules that will govern the House for the next two years,” Cox said.
“In principle, the House could adopt rules that insulated Jeffries from facing motions to vacate. In practice, the House has never done this, nor is there any chance they would do so now.”
As the Republican party stands, even if McCarthy or another GOP member took the seat, they may still face an uphill battle, given the gap between the moderates and the hard-liners.
Professor Rob Singh, a specialist in contemporary U.S. politics at Birkbeck University of London, told Newsweek that, as was the case with Paul Ryan and John Boehner, the role of the Speaker remained a “poisoned chalice” for the party.
Ryan retired from the role in 2018 as his relationship with former president Donald Trump soured, while Boehner, who faced a motion to vacate in 2015, left following difficulties with Tea Party conservatives.
“The party is not evenly split, as such, but there is a substantial minority of bomb-throwers and extremists, beholden only to their primary voters because their safe seats largely guarantee general election success, that they can pull down their leaders with impunity and minimal blowback,” Singh said.
What are Jeffries’ chances of legislating?
Suppose then that six House members did vote for Jeffries to become speaker, he would then be left with the prospect of trying to pass legislation in a majority Republican House, which has been intent on blocking Democratic legislation, such as the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, over the past two years.
If Jeffries was made Speaker, not only would he oversee the passage of Republican legislation, the role would not improve the likelihood of Democratic bills passing the chamber while it is still held by a GOP majority.
Moreover, if he were to attempt to remain in the post, as University College London Emeritus Professor of United States Studies Iwan Morgan told Newsweek, “the cat would be among the pigeons.”
“If Hakeem Jeffries became Speaker, he would have to keep any GOP supporter on side, especially on debt limit extension issues. He would be a hostage to this tiny group with inevitable danger to Democratic unity, " Morgan said.
“In reality, his post would be a poisoned chalice. Far better from a Democratic perspective is to let the GOP continue tearing itself apart!”
Singh added that there remained the possibility of some crossover on issues that could sustain his position for some time, however unlikely that might be: “We have seen some examples of bipartisanship over recent years, despite polarization, on matters such as criminal justice reform, defense spending, Ukraine, etc.
“So in theory it’s possible that Jeffries could mobilize enough of an issue-by-issue coalition to prevail on a few matters that impact lawmakers’ re-election prospects.
“But given the bitterness and disarray, with a looming presidential race, it’s tough to envisage even minimal cooperation. Plus, Jeffries is something of an unknown quantity—it’s simply too early to tell whether or not he can discipline his caucus in the way that Pelosi did so often.”
Even if Jeffries were to attempt to instill a degree of legislative bipartisanship, there would be other areas in which Republicans could view him as a threat.
As Andersen told Newsweek, among the investigation committees, the most notable is the probe into the business dealings of Hunter Biden, which aims to assess what, if any, relationship President Joe Biden had to these ventures.
“All he would be able to do is prevent Republicans from beginning investigations into the Biden administration. Any time he would have in office would be limited and largely ineffectual,” Andersen said.
“The Speaker does have the power to create committees and make appointments to them so in theory could try to put a majority of Democrats onto committees even without having a majority in the chamber. This wouldn’t result in legislation but would influence what committees could accomplish.
“In theory, Jeffries could work with GOP members interested in passing legislation by giving them majorities on relevant committees while putting Democrats in charge of committees that might pursue the more media-attractive Biden investigations.
“If there are Republicans looking to accomplish something as opposed to making news, this could work.”
Given, however, the power the Freedom Caucus holds over the GOP currently, and the desire of its members to launch an investigation into Hunter Biden’s business dealings, Jeffries’ prospects seem even more untenable, lest he actually oversees that probe.
So, while creative thinking, in principle, could push Jeffries into the Speaker office, given the lack of precedent, the mood of current Congressional discourse, and the GOP’s legislative ambitions, it appears extremely unlikely that such an appointment would last, less so that it would provide a useful opportunity for the House to govern effectively.
With many possible scenarios still in play, and now even Donald Trump’s name being floated among the contenders, Singh summarized to Newsweek: “It is a deeply dysfunctional moment in U.S. politics.”
Newsweek has contacted Jeffries’ representatives for comment.
