“If Obama sweeps Indiana and North Carolina,” writes Bowers. “The campaign is over.”
It’s an interesting prediction. For starters, there’s absolutely no chance that the curtain will fall earlier. Clinton currently boasts an average lead of 16 points in Pennsylvania, so despite the fervent finger-crossing of Obamaniacs nationwide, she ain’t goin’ nowhere before May. That said, the Indiana/North Carolina pairing not only represents a bigger delegate prize (187) than Pennsylvania (158), but it’s also expected to be closer contest–meaning that the conflict-obsessed media will put more stock in the results. (“Something unusual appears to be developing in the Democratic presidential race in [Indiana],” wrote the Washington Post earlier this week. “A fair fight.” Case in point.) Which is why an Obama twofer would signal Clinton’s demise, according to Bowers. “May 6th is the first date when Obama can reach 1,627 pledged delegates, or 50% + 1 of pledged delegates,” he says. “Right now, he needs 173.5 pledged delegates to reach 1,627, or 49.7% of the 349 to be determined between April 22 and May 6.” In Bowers’ view, if Obama can win half of the delegates at stake in Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina, he will simultaneously capture the majority of pledged delegates–an important symbolic victory–and erase Clinton’s Pennsylvania gains, forcing the New York senator to contemplate a “final option” that involves “winning the support of more than 70% of the remaining superdelegates.” That, he says, “would be game, set, match.”
The only problem: it won’t be. There are two reasons to be skeptical. One, it’s far from certain that Obama will reach the 1,627 milestone on May 6. According to Slate’s handy Delegate Calculator, if the returns in Pennsylvania and North Carolina hew to current polling averages, and Indiana results, as expected, in a tie, Obama would fall five or six short of the pledged-delegate majority. And while it’s easy to imagine Obama exceeding this tally–the latest PPP poll predicts a 20-point win in the Tarheel State, for example, which would put him over the top–it’s impossible to imagine Clinton actually conceding that such an accomplishment (or concern that her continued presence is hurting Obama for November) has any significance.“This is a very close race and neither of us will reach the magic number of delegates,” she told Time’s Mark Halperin yesterday. “We’re both going to be short, and when you think about the many millions of people who have already voted, we are separated by a relatively small percentage of votes. We’re separated by, you know, a little more than a hundred delegates” As long as Clinton sets 2,025 (and not 1,627) as the finish line–and Florida and Michigan remain unresolved and the pledged-delegate/popular-vote disparity remains close–she’ll stay in the race. And frankly, she has point. There’s no precedent (see Kennedy in 1980 or Reagan in 1976) for a candidate with thousands of delegates, half the vote and a rival who’s yet to clinch the nomination to simply say “sayonara” in the midst of primary season.
Which means that nothing short of a May 7 “Superdelegate Stampede” to Obama will end the race before June. Could that happen? I doubt it. While I suspect that these political poo-bahs, reluctant to overturn the “will of the people,” will break for the pledged-delegate/popular-vote leader in the end–a la Clinton supporter Maria Cantwell–they’re also highly unlikely (for the same reasons, really) to weigh in before all of the people express their will at the ballot box. As Clinton said yesterday in Greensburg, Pennsylvania, “Over the next months millions of people are going to vote. We should wait and see the outcome of those votes.” And so the slugfest rightfully, inexorably continues–even though we’re 95 percent sure how it’s going to end.
