Bill Clinton could talk himself out of trouble again–and that drives conservatives crazy. In fact, the role the president plays in conservative psychology is one of the great underdescribed topics in the capital. To the right, he is an enigmatic, contemptible and, to some, even charming figure. This fractured view of Clinton helps explain why Republicans may be reluctant to stage passionate impeachment hearings. To understand this, you have to realize that there are three, not one, Republican parties at the moment. The factions:
The Pros. These are the professional politicians, the congressmen and the consultants. They regard Clinton a bit like the way Salieri viewed Mozart in “Amadeus.” They know he lacks character, but they envy his inner feel for politics. Because they can’t understand him (who can?), the pros are always shifting gears. In April, Gingrich accused Clinton of orchestrating “the most systematic, deliberate obstruction of justice in American history” and vowed to mention the scandal in every speech. But since then, the Republicans have defeated Clinton initiatives like tobacco legislation. The pros are now confident they will pick up seats in the fall, and they don’t want to overplay their hand on the scandal. So Gingrich has backtracked again. On July 14 the speaker told GOP House members to adopt a “calm position” on Lewinsky.
The Bottom-Liners. These are the regular Republicans, the moneymakers from Wall Street and Main Street. They don’t admire Clinton, but they view him and the whole mess as if from a great distance. They watch the CNBC business programming, not MSNBC’s “NewsChat.” They fear that political turmoil might scare away the foreign investors who have helped drive the financial markets upward, and they’re nervous about any development that might distract the nation’s true leaders: Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan. For the bottom-liners, Clinton is just part of the furniture: he may not be a great man, but the good times aren’t going to get better if he’s driven from office.
The True Believers. For these conviction conservatives, Clinton is the issue. They are intellectual activists, social conservatives and Rush Limbaugh adherents who believe the president has corroded America’s values. He has, in their “Book of Virtues” view, inured people to evasions, deceptions and unfaithfulness. He has defined the presidency down and inverted morals to the point that sophisticates wink at adultery and bearing false witness–two of the Ten Commandments–while smoking or taping Monica Lewinsky are reviled. But this is the smallest faction within the party.
The upshot: even if the president admits he hasn’t been truthful, his opponents’ cultural calculus is good for him. The most powerful group, the pros, and the most numerous faction, the everyday Republicans, both want to avoid an impeachment confrontation. The conviction conservatives may fill the air with calls for justice, but don’t look for a frontal assault on Clinton unless the Starr report is far worse than anything we see now. He’s slipped away before, and may again.
