New Mexico is a 3-point home underdog vs. Colorado State on Saturday (5:30 p.m. ET), with the Lobos getting +140 odds on the money line in Las Vegas. Rams money-line backers, meanwhile, are required to lay -160 odds.
The +140 odds on New Mexico imply a 41.6 percent chance of winning the game. In AccuScore simulations, it wins slightly over 54 percent of the time, prompting us to list the Lobos as -120 favorites. When Accuscore has the opportunity to get plus-money on a team that we predict the favorite, we’re always interested - especially when it’s a home dog. Visit The Linemakers on Sporting News’ odds page for updated lines.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 32-30. Our numbers list the average total at 59. With Vegas setting the total at 56.5, the OVER is also a nice wagering opportunity. In fact, the score goes OVER 56.5 in 56 percent of AccuScore runs.
By the numbers: Colorado State at New Mexico
Colorado State QB Nick Stevens is projected to finish with 271 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT and a passer rating of 148.6. When looking purely at the QB spot, Colorado State has a huge advantage. New Mexico’s Austin Apodaca actually has a higher probability of throwing a pick than he does a TD.
The larger discrepancy, however, is found in the Lobos’ run game. Both Teriyon Gipson and Jhurell Pressley are projected to have at least 120-plus rushing yards on anywhere from 17-20 carries each, averaging a touchdown or more a piece in the sims.
More college football picks: Saturday’s selections from Vegas
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