That said, today brings news of two other reasons why Clinton should probably abandon the June rallying cry ASAP:
- It’s historically inaccurate. True, this isn’t news. When Clinton slipped on Friday, various outlets had long reported that in 1968 there were fewer primaries (13) than there are today and that RFK, after announcing his bid in March, didn’t actually compete until May, meaning that his campaign was only about nine weeks long–or roughly 13 months shorter than Clinton’s current bid. What’s more, it’s no revelation that even though Bill Clinton didn’t amass a majority of delegates until June 2, 1992, he effectively clinched the nod on April 7; after Clinton crushed rival Jerry Brown in that night’s primaries, then-aide George Stephanopoulos said that “lightning would have to strike” for Bubba to lose, as it was now “mathematically impossible for Brown to get the nomination.”
So what changed today? Historical inconvenience gave way to political impossibility, courtesy of a quote from the former president himself. Turns out that in his 2004 memoir “My Life” Bill actually sided with historians over Hillary. “On April 7, we also won in Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin,” he writes. “On April 9, Paul Tsongas announced that he would not reenter the race. The fight for the nomination was effectively over.” Ouch. Hillary may have more votes and more delegates than any runner-up in U.S. primary history–certainly more than Brown, who finished with 596 to Bill’s 3,372–but it’s pretty hard to cite 1992 as an example of justifiable “against all odds” longevity when the eventual victor, her husband, says it was over months before anyone reached a delegate majority. Judging 2008 by Bill’s 1992 standards, Hillary’s campaign has been “effectively over” since May 6–if not earlier.
- It won’t make a difference. Clinton’s case for continuing her campaign rests squarely on the shoulders of the superdelegates. Neither I nor my opponent have secured the number of delegates necessary to win the nomination, she’s fond of saying. So let’s wait and see how this plays out. That’s fine; there’s no need for Clinton to withdraw before South Dakota and Montana cast the primary season’s final votes on June 3 (in fact, her continued presence may even help Obama in the end). But the next step on Clinton’s path to the nomination–securing the endorsements of enough superdelegates to put her over the top–is pretty much a mirage. Today, The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder reports that no matter what happens on May 31–when the DNC Rules Committee meets to settle the Florida and Michigan dispute–Obama will likely cross the finish line during the first week of June. The reason? He’s already banking superdels. According to Ambinder, “sources close to the campaign estimate that as many as three dozen Democratic superdelegates have privately pledged to announce their support for Obama on June 4 or 5.” We’ve known for months that these party poobahs have resisted siding with Obama (or Clinton) for fear of appearing to interfere in an ongoing process, and that once the contests came to a conclusion they would likely pick the winner. But it’s news that Team Obama, now 47 delegates away from 2,025, is formally hoarding enough endorsements to clear the post-June 3 bar–whether he does well or poorly in the final primaries, and whether the magic number stays put at 2,025 or rises as high as 2,210.
In other words, Clinton has bigger problems at this point than what she did or didn’t say about RFK.
