Could be, but there aren’t many signs of it visible on the campaign trail. Not long after her razor-thin victory in Indiana it was back to business as usual. Just before 4 a.m. campaign officials added a last-minute stop to Wednesday’s schedule: a plan for her to speak to supporters in Shepherdstown, W.Va., a small suburban college town that reporters joked was quintessential Clinton country: banners hanging from lampposts next to small-town boutique stores with names like “Mimi’s Ice Cream Shoppe” and “The Herb Lady.”
The 300 or so supporters who scrambled to the town’s center for a glimpse of the candidate brushed off concerns about the status of Clinton’s bid and the uphill nature of her fight from here on in. “She’s going to win; there’s absolutely no way she can’t,” said Michael Malick, a Clinton supporter from Martinsburg, W.Va., who quickly dismissed her opponent as “not even comparable.” Joanne Drewry, another supporter, had the biggest collection of Hillary signs in the crowd. “I’ve got a lot of faith in her,” she told NEWSWEEK. “She’s a woman, she’s strong, and I know she’s got it in her.”
Clinton, fierce as ever in a blazing hot-pink suit, also waved off any worries about her political prospects. Speaking to the 300 or so people at a hastily thrown-together rally on the steps of the town’s university administration building, Clinton cited high turnout in Indiana and other contests. She argued that the protracted nomination battle is good for the party and made the claim that there’s still plenty of time left to catch fire—a view that did not find much support among party leaders in the aftermath of Tuesday’s vote. “I still think it’s early,” Hillary told reporters after the event. “Remember that in June of 1992, that’s when Bill really wrapped up the nomination—the middle of June, after the California primary.” In fact, her husband effectively became the nominee about three months earlier. On March 20, 1992, the Washington Post reported that Clinton “effectively locked up the Democratic presidential nomination yesterday when former Massachusetts Gov. Paul Tsongas suspended his campaign.”
Clinton also pointed to 1968 as precedent for a drawn-out campaign. “You know, I remember very well what happened in the California primary in 1968, as, you know, Senator [Robert] Kennedy won that primary,” Clinton said today. “I mean, we traditionally have gone longer than you’ve seen in the last couple of cycles. And there isn’t any problem in closing ranks and unifying.” But it’s unclear how appealing that example will be to the crucial constituency of undecided superdelegates. Most people don’t remember the 1968 Democratic Convention—with riots and chaos unfolding inside and outside the convention hall—as the party’s finest hour.
Quoting history is one thing, but it’s the here and now on which Clinton will need to focus. With just a handful of contests left, her campaign still trails Obama in the total delegate count. Over the next month voters in five states and Puerto Rico will cast their votes. But as Obama supporters are quick to point out, even massive margins in expected Clinton strongholds like West Virginia (May 13) and Kentucky (May 20) would leave her well short of Obama in the pledged delegate count.
Obama needs 2,025 delegates to capture the nomination—a figure that, despite his edge, he will also struggle to reach. But the Clinton forces are seeking to persuade voters and superdelegates that Obama needs to clear an even higher bar. Clinton’s camp suggests that 2,210 is the new magic number. That higher figure, she explains, takes into account the votes cast in Florida and Michigan, the two states stripped of delegates by Democratic Party leaders after voting officials in each state moved their primaries up on the calendar in defiance of the national committee’s wishes. Clinton won handily in both states—no doubt benefiting from the fact that Obama did not campaign in either place and did not even have his name on the ballot in Michigan.
Clinton’s campaign is now leading a challenge to count Florida and Michigan’s votes and seat the state’s delegates at the Democratic Convention in August. But during a conference call with reporters on Wednesday her advisers admitted that even if they manage to persuade the party to seat both states’ delegations, Clinton will still be well behind Obama. “If Michigan and Florida are seated fully, we estimate that we would pick up a net of 58 delegates,” spokesman Phil Singer told reporters. “And that would, according to our estimates, bring us within a margin of … fewer than 100 pledged delegates separating—or total delegates, rather, separating Senator Obama and Senator Clinton.”
As the battle for delegates continues, the burning question is whether Clinton will have enough money to go on. She loaned her campaign another $6.4 million—bringing her total loans to the effort to more than $11 million—and is running on fumes. On Wednesday morning’s conference call communications director Howard Wolfson ducked a question about how much money the campaign has raised since Tuesday night’s contests, saying, “I have not yet had an opportunity to check with our Internet team this morning.” (Within 15 minutes of Clinton’s Pennsylvania victory, by contrast, various advisers were peppering journalists with impressive fund-raising totals.) At a fund-raiser in Washington, D.C., late Wednesday, Clinton told the crowd she’ll be making a stand in Kentucky, Oregon and other future primary states and thanked them for helping to keep the campaign going. (Attendees donated $1 million to Clinton’s campaign.) “We are being outspent two to one, three to one, even five to one,” she said. “But we have been able to battle back.”
With a new check in hand, Hillary says she’s not quitting. Just two weeks ago, when she spoke about going the distance, she adamantly proclaimed that she would keep her campaign alive until the convention in August and, if need be, let the delegates decide. And on Tuesday night she defiantly told the audience at her Indiana victory speech—given before the outcome was known—that she was going on to the White House. But Wednesday she changed her rhetoric slightly. “I’ll go until there’s a nominee,” she said.
