Late this afternoon Hillary Clinton’s staff sent out an ominously titled memo: “Watch What They Do, Not What They Say,” the subject line warned. The email blast was sent to scores of reporters in what can only be an attempt to move downward the double-digit victory margin the media narrative has set for Clinton, who finds herself in the odd position of being cast as a loser even if she technically wins Pennsylvania. The conventional wisdom has long held that Clinton will need to take the Keystone state by at least ten points to be branded a “winner,” which explains why the single-digit edge recent polls have given her will likely not be enough to sway anxious superdelegates and to infuse her broke campaign with a new wave of cash.
Clinton’s campaign is resisting the double-digit expectations. This morning the New York senator told reporters any win should be considered a victory given Barack Obama’s spending advantage. In case she wasn’t clear enough, the campaign followed up with its strongly worded memo. “The Obama campaign is attempting to pre-spin the results from tonight’s Pennsylvania primary by suggesting that Sen. Clinton should–and will–win,” the Clinton memo says. “But after the Obama campaign’s ‘go-for-broke’ Pennsylvania strategy, after their avalanche of negative ads, negative mailers and negative attacks against Sen. Clinton, after their record-breaking spending in the state, a fundamental question must be asked: Why shouldn’t Sen. Obama win?”
Could the Clintonites be nervous about a victory margin of just a few points? Just a few weeks ago, Clinton had a 20-point lead that has evaporated to less than ten (most polls now show Clinton with a 5 or 6 point lead). Many observers have also questioned whether the polls are accurately capturing the strong support Obama has among youth. Privately, a Clinton strategist said the New York senator’s team does not know what to expect, but is cautiously optimistic because late deciders tend to break for her.
Clinton needs an impressive margin for reasons other than wowing the media. Her money problems have only intensified in recent weeks. Earlier this month, the New York senator downgraded to a Boeing 717 from a far roomier 757. That effectively means Clinton is forced to see much more of the press on the plane–she now shares a bathroom with us, an indignity that she is reminded of every time she makes her way to the back of the plane in front of the voyeuristic eye of traveling journalists who are paid to watch her every move.
One item the Clinton campaign does not skimp on is election night venues in friendly states. Unlike Obama, Clinton will party in Philadelphia tonight, a sure sign she expects to win by some margin. She has chosen the ritzy Park Hyatt, where rooms cost as much as $400 a night, for her fete. The press filing center here features mini cheesecakes bedecked with raspberries and a full buffet. A waiter wearing a tux is clearing our plates. And the campaign weary, jeans clad press corps is sitting underneath four ornate chandeliers at the moment, a sight which would be comic if everyone weren’t so tense about deadline.
Clinton must also be tense. Whether she wins technically by a few points or blows Obama out by 15 points will determine the campaign’s course going forward–and if it can go forward. But despite her precarious position, Clinton hasn’t wasted any time dwelling on Pennsylvania. Thursday she jets to North Carolina where she’ll tour three cities with retired General Hugh Shelton and campaign on a message of better care for veterans. From there, it’s Indiana again on Friday and Saturday, when she’ll barnstorm through Bloomington, Gary, East Chicago, Fort Wayne and South Bend. Indiana native and staunch Democrat John Mellencamp, who performed a free concert for Obama earlier this week, will join Clinton in Indiana, his native state, on Saturday.
After six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, where do things stand here? It’s anyone’s guess, but Clinton’s memo may say it best. “Sen. Obama’s supporters–and many pundits–have argued that the delegate “math” makes him the prohibitive frontrunner. They have argued that Sen. Clinton’s chances are slim to none. So if he’s already the frontrunner, if he’s had six weeks of unlimited resources to get his message out, shouldn’t he be the one expected to win tonight? If not, why not?”
