Unsurprisingly, that someone would be Hillary Clinton.
On Friday, if you’ll remember, Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean delivered an “enough already” message to the superdelegates.
So I wasn’t surprised this morning when I received a schedule from the Clinton campaign detailing Bill’s plans to visit Oregon, a a May 20 state, and Montana, a June 3 state, over the next two days. Hillary has long said she intends to campaign through the end of primary season. But I did do a double-take when I spotted this headline in the Washington Post: CLINTON VOWS TO STAY IN RACE TO CONVENTION. Seeking to silence the mounting drumbeat for her to bow out and avert a party crisis, Clinton is apparently now claiming that she will not only remain in the race until end of regulation, but will fight through August–presumably even if the superdelegates break for Obama in June. Her rationale: the disqualified results from Florida and Michigan. “I have no intention of stopping until we finish what we started, until we see what happens in the next 10 contests and until we resolve Florida and Michigan,” she said. “And if we don’t resolve it, we’ll resolve it at the convention–that’s what credentials committees are for.”
Should we believe her? As the Jed Report notes, we’ve heard this “I’m going all the way to the convention” talk before–and it’s almost always a “leading indicator of a doomed candidacy.” First there was John Edwards, who told ABC on Jan. 6 that “he will stay in the presidential race through the party’s convention in late August, even if he fails to win any of the early presidential primary states.” After losing South Carolina on the 26th of that month, Edwards was still gung-ho. “This thing is going for a long time,” deputy campaign manager Jonathan Princesaid on Jan. 28. But Edwards dropped out two days later. Then came Mitt Romney. Despite being overpowered by John McCain in the Feb. 5 “Super Tuesday” contests, Romney pledged that night to fight until the Republican convention. “claimed that wins in Texas on March 4 would convince him to continue through the summer. “If we win Texas, I think it changes the dynamics of this race,” he said. “It could well go all the way to the convention. If the convention delegates pick the president, chances are they would pick the most conservative. I would be the one they would end up picking.” Instead, he bowed out on March 4.
Does this precedent apply to Clinton? Sorry Obamaniacs, but not really. A loss in Pennsylvania–highly unlikely, considering she currently leads by an average of 16 points–might spur a sudden withdrawal, but barring that, she’s in it for the long haul. The best analogue is probably Huckabee, who plodded along until the math made victory absolutely impossible; he skedaddled the moment McCain hit the magic 1,191 majority. If Clinton’s convention talk is anything more than bluster–and I suspect that it is–it now seems that she’ll stick around even after Obama hits 2,025 (my previous point of no return). That’s because 2,025 represents a delegate majority only if Florida and Michigan aren’t counted. With the Sunshine and Great Lakes States included, that number rises to something like 2,208. So judging by her “convention chatter”–and her claim that “we cannot go forward until Florida and Michigan are taken care of”–don’t expect Clinton to cave until the convention rolls around, or Obama snags enough supers to hit the higher mark. Whichever comes first.
That is, unless she has more surprises up her sleeve.
