Anyway, BAU isn’t such a bad idea at this point. It isn’t wise to tip your hand before you have a hand-people and policies in place. Ted Sorensen doesn’t remember his president, John F. Kennedy, doing anything un-BAU during his early transition period: “He was very cautious … He didn’t make any predictions, cheerful or gloomy.” Indeed, it might be argued that the few steps Clinton has taken outside BAU–not being more equivocal about homosexuals in the military, announcing an economic summit-have been missteps. The summit, a gathering whose purpose no Clintonian seems able to describe or is willing to take credit for, was particularly uninspired. It sent a signal that (a) the nation was in some sort of dire economic crisis and (b) the new administration didn’t know what to do about it. It was, in fact, the culmination of many gloomy hints and signals and body language the president-elect and his advisers have been telegraphing since the election. The focus, he has said, must be “on the gravity of the situation.” And “there are a lot of very troubling signs in the economy.”
Yo, my man: chill. There are plenty of hopeful signs, too. If anything, the proper BAU pose right now should be–relentlessly chipper. “Hey, we’re in,” said one transition aide. “The name of the game ought to be hope. We want people to be out there buying refrigerators, goosing the economy.” And letting the next president get on to the serious business of addressing the nations long-term, low-growth doldrums. Indeed, by the weekend, Clinton transistors were busily de-emphasizing the Economic Retreat; some were even suggesting that the event should be transformed into a Clintonomic Pep Rally, a series of testimonials about how easy it can be to “compete and win”–Clinton’s mantra–in the global economy.
The immediate transition debate remains economic stimulus vs. deficit reduction. For a grim moment, deep in October, Clinton’s contentious gang of economic advisers had come to consensus on–and Clinton came close to proposing–an emergency stimulus plan. That moment has passed; the advisers have retreated into their usual ideological corners. And now, quietly, there seems a Zeitgeist drift in the other direction–away from the investment–firsters (those who favor fast-track stimulation of the economy) toward the deficit hawks. Part of it is the recent trickle of hopeful economic statistics. Part of it is the persistent rumors that deficit hawks Paul Volcker and Alice Rivlin were the leading candidates for Treasury and budget director. But the most surprising, and potentially significant, development is a sudden, post-Perot gust of deficit anxiety in the Congress, specifically the House. “I would say that there is now a consensus in favor of serious deficit reduction, including entitlement reform,” says a House leadership source (who does not exclude social security from the mix). Much of the impetus is coming from the 63 new Democrats, many of whom won office by surfing on Ross Perot’s deficit-reducing, term-limiting coattails. Their fervor may be transitory: “Everyone is in favor of balancing the budget until they see what it entails,” says a skeptical hawk, Rep. Charles Schumer of New York. “I’ve seen these things crash and burn too often.”
And then, too, the president-elect shows telltale signs of being an investment-firster himself. For Bill Clinton, economic stimulus has a human face–the woman in Keokuk Iowa, who said her husband had just lost his job after 27 years, and all the others like her. He means to give those people work, as soon as possible. Deficit reduction is a blip on his radar screen–it exists in the general neighborhood of the Perot blip; it isn’t something felt in the gut. At his Little Rock dinner with the congressional leaders, according to one account, Clinton barely mentioned the deficit. His three immediate priorities, he said, were a “jobs program,” national service and political reform. Within days, after endless blab with congressional sorts, the president-elect–a quick study–had thrown deficit reduction (and health-care reform, which most of his advisers think is just too complicated to produce soon) onto the list, and deleted political reform. All of which means … not too much. A first-cut economic plan won’t even be submitted to Clinton by his staff until mid-December. There will be drift and shift and grief for weeks thereafter. All of it, BAU.
