“Alabama’s played the better schedule in the SEC,” said White, “and Alabama’s the better team with the far better defense, but with the recent big wins by Clemson the disparity between the two closed to the point where, Alabama is rated only 3-points better (5-points better prior to ACC Championship). At the beginning of the season, the differential was 9-points.”
The added inflation to the number is sort of a luxury tax because sports books know the majority of the action will come on Alabama. Most books opened Alabama -7 just to see if they’d get some feelers taking the points, and some sharps did, which caused many to move to -7 (EVEN) or -6.5. William Hill’s 104 sports books across Nevada have taken 71 percent of the tickets written on Alabama, as well as 61 percent of the overall cash taken in.
MORE: 20 things to know about Alabama | 20 things to know about Clemson
Based on what the public is willing to lay, -6.5 is the right number regardless of ratings. But after watching Clemson beat a red hot North Carolina team in the ACC Championship and then destroy Oklahoma, 37-17, in the Orange Bowl there’s no denying that Clemson is certainly underrated in Las Vegas for Monday’s match-up. The Sooners had been the top rated team — one point better than Alabama — prior to the loss.
Alabama beat Michigan State, 38-0, in the Cotton Bowl and Florida, 29-15, in the SEC Championship Game — two offenses that weren’t anywhere near the explosiveness of Clemson’s. The Crimson Tide come in on a roll at the betting windows, covering six of their last seven games, one of the many reasons they’re so popular at sports books this week. Clemson, while covering its last two games, hadn’t covered a number in its previous four which gave some reason to doubt and be soured on the Tigers.
So we have the mighty Crimson Tide with Nick Saban’s three championships against a Clemson team that won its only championship back in 1981.
More national title: Prop bets | Public betting percentage report
How about some recent bowl history? Before Alabama’s big win over Michigan State last week, it had lost its previous two bowl games to Oklahoma and then Ohio State in the playoffs last season as a 7.5-point favorite. Clemson, meanwhile, has won and covered its last four bowl games — as underdogs — which include two straight wins over Oklahoma and a win over Ohio State following the 2013 season. In the 2012 Chick-fil-A Bowl, Clemson didn’t need the +5.5 in a straight-up win against LSU.
Pretty good stuff Dabo Swinney! Obviously, he gets his boys prepared.
I do like Clemson a little bit taking +7, but Kenny White is reluctant to go against Alabama. However, we do both agree that the best wager in this game will be the game staying UNDER 51 total points.
Alabama has not allowed more than 16 points to anyone in its past seven games and allowed only 256 yards-per-game, which was second-best in the nation. Clemson was seventh-best allowing only 302 ypg.
Pick: Our unified play is on UNDER 51. Good luck and have a festive Championship Monday!
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