A carbon trader buys and sells pollution credits, purchasing them from relatively clean countries and selling them to nations that have lots of pollution-spewing plants. It is Russia’s great fortune that the Kyoto Protocol’s ceiling for greenhouse-gas emissions is pegged to 1990 levels–the Soviet Union’s last full year. Since then Russia’s factory output has fallen, and carbon emissions have dropped at least 30 percent. Russia, therefore, has lots of pollution credits to sell to other countries. Likewise, polluters have the option of investing in cleanup technologies for decrepit Russian plants. Unified Energy System, Russia’s electricity monopoly, is a prime candidate for modernization. Its 365 mostly old power plants account for 2 percent of the world’s carbon emissions.

If Kyoto goes into effect, a “pollution exchange” will open in Europe. “Russia,” says Alexander Golub of the New York-based Environmental Defense Fund, “absolutely will be the biggest player.”